On Herd Immunity

United States COVID Immunity Maps (as of October 3, 2020)

These maps show the immunity, and/or rate of relative growth of COVID mortality in different US counties, should social mobility returns to its normal (pre-Pandemic) level. As of October 3rd, 2020, the best-fit model predicts that 21% ± 7% of US population live in counties that have passed herd immunity threshold, i.e. the COVID-19 daily mortality should not grow at resumption of normal social activity.  

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Counties in cyan have passed the immunity threshold, while those in blue are within 1-sigma threshold of immunity
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Predicted relative mortality growth rate (in units of 1/day) for US counties, in lieu of social distancing or other interventions
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Counties in cyan have passed the immunity threshold, while those in blue are within 1-sigma threshold of immunity
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Predicted relative mortality growth rate (in units of 1/day) for US Northeast corridor, in lieu of social distancing or other interventions